Summary of Actual/Predicted Increases and Inflation

Khokhela’s Actual / Predicted Increase Survey for 2022 shows that the average increase in salaries for 2022 was 5.3%. This is lower than the average inflation rate of 6.7% up to September 2023.  The average inflation rate for Q3 was 7.6%, which is higher than what the reserve bank anticipated which was 7.0%. Predicted increases for 2023 are expected to be on average 5.7%.

Statistics South Africa has published its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022, with the inflation rate at 7.5%. which is 0.1% lower than the previous month.

The statement of the Monetary Policy Committee published on the 22 September 2022 stated that in the wake of the COVID 19 pandemic and heightened geo-political tensions, the global economy has entered a period of persistently high inflation and weaker economic growth. Many developing economies exited the pandemic with less than full recovery and high debt levels.

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to impair production and trade of a wide range of energy, food and other commodities. The supply of energy to the Euro area is limited as winter approaches, placing immense strain on households, businesses, and governments. With rapid inflation and monetary policy normalization, the United States is also experiencing slower economic growth. While China’s recovery from the Covid-19 lockdowns has strengthened, economic growth is expected to remain below longer-term trends.

Taking the above and other factors into account, the SARB’s forecast for global growth in 2022 is revised down from 3.3% in the July meeting to 3.0% and is lowered to 2.0% (from 2.5%) for 2023.

The Bank’s forecast of headline inflation for this year is unchanged at 6.5%. For 2023, headline inflation is revised lower to 5.3% (down from 5.7%), because of lower food, fuel and core inflation forecasts for next year.

The graph below provides the average predicted increases for 2023 for the various categories of staff.

Source: Khokhela Consulting

For any further information or should you require a copy of the results, please contact Arlene Brown either via email or on 087 802-5643.