Khokhela’s Actual and Predicted Increase Survey for 2025 shows that the average increase in salaries in 2025 was 5.2% compared to 5.7% in 2024. This increase is higher than the year-to-date average inflation rate from January – September 2025 of 3.1% which is lower than the same period last year which was 4.94%. The average inflation rate for Q3 was 3.4% which is also lower than the same period last year which was 4.3%.
The Reserve Bank anticipates that the average inflation rate for 2025 will be 3.6% should this be the case, granted increases for 2025 will be higher than inflation by 1.6%. The survey results predict increases for 2026 to be 5.2% on average which mirrors 2025 increases.
Statistics South Africa has published its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025, with the inflation rate at 3.4% which is 0.4% lower than the same period last year, but an increase on the previous month of 0.1%.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement published on the 31 July 2025 states that Global economic conditions remain uncertain with the world growth outlook largely unchanged from the last meeting. For the major central banks, policy is generally in a wait-and-see phase. In the United States, there are signs of new inflationary pressures, from tariffs. Monetary policy remains ‘modestly restrictive’. In Europe, by contrast, inflation is lower, and policy is more neutral. All the major central banks kept their policy rates unchanged at their most recent meetings.
Turning to South Africa, in May the MPC warned that economic activity for the first quarter of 2025 was looking weak. Statistics South Africa has since reported that growth was just 0.1%, in line with expectations. However, there was also a downward revision to earlier GDP data. Along with an assumption of higher US tariffs on South Africa, this has caused the MPC to mark down the 2025 growth forecast.
The economy’s underlying growth trend remains low, mainly due to persistent supply-side problems, for instance in logistics.
Should the SARB’s prediction for 2026 inflation be correct at an average of 3.6% the average predicted increase for 2026 of 5.2% will be higher than forecast inflation as in previous years.
A total of 40 participating companies took part in the study. Khokhela would like to extend their appreciation to each company who participated.
For any further information or should you require a copy of the results, please contact Arlene Brown either via email on arlene@khokhela.co.za or on 083 320-4658.