Khokhela’s Actual / Predicted Increase Survey for 2023 shows that the average increase in salaries in 2023 was 6.0%. This is in line with the year-to-date average inflation rate of 6.04%. The average inflation rate for Q3 was 4.97%. The Reserve Bank anticipates that the average inflation rate for 2023 will be around 6.0%, should this be the case increases for 2023 will align with inflation. The survey results predict increases for 2024 to be 5.7% on average.
The statement of the Monetary Policy Committee published on the 20 July 2023 stated as we entered the second half of 2023, near term prospects for the global economy were broadly unchanged, with inflation easing and growth forecasts stable. The longer-term economic outlook however remains clouded by risks to the inflation trajectory, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the effects of climate change. In the developing world, many economies face high debt levels, weaker economic growth, and prolonged adverse financing conditions. As a result, Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth prospects remain muted.
While goods price inflation has eased in much of the world, core inflation remains elevated, keeping consumer price inflation from falling more sharply. Globally monetary policy is likely to remain focused on ensuring inflation continues to retreat, implying policy rates will stay higher. We expect markets in major financial centres to remain volatile.
With core goods and food inflation lower in the near term, headline inflation for 2023 is revised down to 6.0% (from 6.2%). The headline inflation forecast for 2024 also decreases to 5.0%, before stabilising at 4.5% in 2025.
Should the SARB’s prediction for 2024 inflation be correct the average predicted increase for 2024 of 5.7% will be higher than forecast inflation.
For any further information or should you require a copy of the results, please contact Arlene Brown either via email on arlene@khokhela.co.za or on 083 320-4658.